Home › League stats › Liga Pro › Libertad vs Leones del Norte
Liga Pro · Ecuador
Libertad vs Leones del Norte prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Libertad host Leones del Norte in the Liga Pro (Ecuador) on 9 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Libertad 3–0 Leones del Norte.
Going into the match, Libertad had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 9. Leones del Norte had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Libertad's last 10 and 5 of Leones del Norte's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Libertad averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.09 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Leones del Norte averaged 1.00 scored and 1.57 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.99 goals from Libertad and 0.75 from Leones del Norte. From that it rates a home win at 66%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 12%, against 38%, 30% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 48%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Libertad (green) and Leones del Norte (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertad | WLWDL | 1.60 | 0.90 | 50% | 50% |
| Leones del Norte | DLDWL | 0.90 | 1.80 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 4 Jul 2026 · Libertad 1–3 Leones del Norte
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.80 |
| Libertad Win | 38% | 2.45 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 35% | 2.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.