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Division Profesional - Clausura · Paraguay
Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Libertad Asuncion host Sportivo Luqueno in the Division Profesional - Clausura (Paraguay) on 23 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Libertad Asuncion Win — Libertad Asuncion to win. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Libertad Asuncion had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 13. Sportivo Luqueno had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Libertad Asuncion's last 10 and 6 of Sportivo Luqueno's last 10; 4 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Libertad Asuncion averaged 1.79 goals scored and 1.14 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Sportivo Luqueno averaged 1.00 scored and 1.42 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.94 goals from Libertad Asuncion and 0.97 from Sportivo Luqueno. From that it rates a home win at 59%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 17%, against 62%, 23% and 15% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Libertad Asuncion (green) and Sportivo Luqueno (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertad Asuncion | LDWLD | 1.30 | 1.30 | 60% | 40% |
| Sportivo Luqueno | WLLDL | 1.20 | 1.80 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 16 Aug 2026 · Sportivo Luqueno 1–2 Libertad Asuncion
- 11 May 2026 · Sportivo Luqueno 2–3 Libertad Asuncion
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Libertad Asuncion Win | 62% | 1.44 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.