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USL Super League · USA
Lexington W vs Tampa Bay Sun W prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lexington W host Tampa Bay Sun W in the USL Super League (USA) on 17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Lexington W 2–1 Tampa Bay Sun W.
Going into the match, Lexington W had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 7. Tampa Bay Sun W had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Lexington W's last 10 and 7 of Tampa Bay Sun W's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lexington W averaged 2.00 goals scored and 0.56 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Tampa Bay Sun W averaged 1.14 scored and 1.71 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.75 goals from Lexington W and 0.80 from Tampa Bay Sun W. From that it rates a home win at 59%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 16%, against 49%, 26% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lexington W | LDWWL | 1.40 | 0.70 | 40% | 40% |
| Tampa Bay Sun W | LDDWW | 1.10 | 1.50 | 70% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 5 Oct 2026 · Tampa Bay Sun W 1–1 Lexington W
- 17 May 2026 · Lexington W 1–0 Tampa Bay Sun W
- 19 Apr 2026 · Lexington W 4–0 Tampa Bay Sun W
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.