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USL Super League · USA
Lexington W vs Sporting JAX W prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lexington W host Sporting JAX W in the USL Super League (USA) on 23 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.73, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Lexington W had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 8. Sporting JAX W had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Lexington W's last 10 and 5 of Sporting JAX W's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lexington W averaged 2.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Sporting JAX W averaged 2.00 scored and 1.38 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.33 goals from Lexington W and 0.91 from Sporting JAX W. From that it rates a home win at 45%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 24%, against 39%, 27% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 45%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lexington W (green) and Sporting JAX W (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lexington W | WLDWW | 1.50 | 0.80 | 50% | 50% |
| Sporting JAX W | WDLLD | 1.60 | 1.40 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 21 Sep 2026 · Sporting JAX W 0–1 Lexington W
- 25 Apr 2026 · Sporting JAX W 1–2 Lexington W
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.