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USL Championship · USA
Lexington vs FC Tulsa prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lexington host FC Tulsa in the USL Championship (USA) on 9 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Lexington 0–0 FC Tulsa.
Going into the match, Lexington had won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 11. FC Tulsa had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Lexington's last 10 and 5 of FC Tulsa's last 10; 6 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lexington averaged 2.15 goals scored and 1.08 conceded across 13 matches; away from home FC Tulsa averaged 1.33 scored and 1.47 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.75 goals from Lexington and 1.16 from FC Tulsa. From that it rates a home win at 50%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 24%, against 53%, 25% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lexington (green) and FC Tulsa (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 26 Jul 2026 · FC Tulsa 0–0 Lexington
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Lexington Win | 54% | 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.