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USL Championship · USA
Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lexington host El Paso Locomotive in the USL Championship (USA) on 3 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Lexington 3–1 El Paso Locomotive.
Going into the match, Lexington had won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 12. El Paso Locomotive had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Lexington's last 10 and 5 of El Paso Locomotive's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lexington averaged 2.08 goals scored and 1.08 conceded across 12 matches; away from home El Paso Locomotive averaged 1.53 scored and 1.27 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.99 goals from Lexington and 1.26 from El Paso Locomotive. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 23%, against 50%, 25% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 85%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lexington (green) and El Paso Locomotive (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lexington | WWWLL | 2.20 | 1.20 | 50% | 60% |
| El Paso Locomotive | DWWWW | 1.80 | 0.70 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 31 May 2026 · El Paso Locomotive 1–4 Lexington
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 60% | 1.56 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Lexington Win | 50% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.