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Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Leones Negros UDG host Dorados in the Liga de Expansión MX (Mexico) on 4 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Leones Negros UDG Win — Leones Negros UDG to win. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Leones Negros UDG 6–3 Dorados.
Going into the match, Leones Negros UDG had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 13. Dorados had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Leones Negros UDG's last 10 and 7 of Dorados's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Leones Negros UDG averaged 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Dorados averaged 2.25 scored and 1.50 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 3.20 goals from Leones Negros UDG and 1.25 from Dorados. From that it rates a home win at 75%, a draw at 14% and an away win at 11%, against 60%, 22% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Leones Negros UDG (green) and Dorados (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leones Negros UDG | WLDWD | 2.10 | 1.30 | 70% | 70% |
| Dorados | LDDWW | 1.70 | 1.40 | 70% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.20 |
| Leones Negros UDG Win | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.62 |
| Leones Negros UDG HT & FT | 42% | 2.30 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 40% | 2.35 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.