Home › League stats › Primera C › Leones de Rosario vs Mercedes
Primera C · Argentina
Leones de Rosario vs Mercedes prediction and preview
26 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Leones de Rosario host Mercedes in the Primera C (Argentina) on 26 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Leones de Rosario 1–0 Mercedes.
Going into the match, Leones de Rosario had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Mercedes had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Leones de Rosario's last 10 and 4 of Mercedes's last 10; 3 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Leones de Rosario averaged 1.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Mercedes averaged 0.75 scored and 1.08 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.11 goals from Leones de Rosario and 0.66 from Mercedes. From that it rates a home win at 45%, a draw at 35% and an away win at 20%, against 49%, 30% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Leones de Rosario (green) and Mercedes (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leones de Rosario | LWWLD | 1.00 | 0.70 | 40% | 30% |
| Mercedes | WWDWW | 1.00 | 1.10 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 17 Oct 2026 · Mercedes 2–1 Leones de Rosario
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS No | 60% | 1.53 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 60% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Leones de Rosario Win | 49% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Primera C matches that day
- Centro Español vs Central Cordoba · 26 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Primera C
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1 - Sacachispas vs Sportivo Barracas · 26 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Primera C
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–1