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Ligue 1 · France
Lens vs Paris FC prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lens host Paris FC in the Ligue 1 (France) on 24 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Lens had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 18. Paris FC had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Lens's last 10 and 5 of Paris FC's last 10; 8 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lens averaged 1.88 goals scored and 1.19 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Paris FC averaged 1.44 scored and 1.89 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.63 goals from Lens and 1.17 from Paris FC. From that it rates a home win at 47%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 26%, against 39%, 27% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lens (green) and Paris FC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 79% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.