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Ekstraklasa · Poland
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Legia Warszawa host Wisla Krakow in the Ekstraklasa (Poland) on 11 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Legia Warszawa 2–0 Wisla Krakow.
Going into the match, Legia Warszawa had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 24 and conceding 13. Wisla Krakow had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Legia Warszawa's last 10 and 8 of Wisla Krakow's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Legia Warszawa averaged 2.21 goals scored and 0.71 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Wisla Krakow averaged 1.70 scored and 1.70 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.83 goals from Legia Warszawa and 1.04 from Wisla Krakow. From that it rates a home win at 55%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 20%, against 47%, 26% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Legia Warszawa (green) and Wisla Krakow (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legia Warszawa | WWWDW | 2.40 | 1.30 | 80% | 60% |
| Wisla Krakow | WWWDL | 2.00 | 1.60 | 80% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.