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Premier League Cup · England
Leeds United U21 vs Stoke City U21 prediction and preview
31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · LNER Community Stadium, York
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Leeds United U21 host Stoke City U21 in the Premier League Cup (England) on 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.80, which the bookmaker market rated at about 51% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Leeds United U21 had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 22. Stoke City U21 had won 1, drawn 1 and lost 8 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 28 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Leeds United U21's last 10 and 5 of Stoke City U21's last 10; 7 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Leeds United U21 averaged 2.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Stoke City U21 averaged 0.89 scored and 3.00 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.36 goals from Leeds United U21 and 1.23 from Stoke City U21. From that it rates a home win at 62%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 18%, against 45%, 26% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 30%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Leeds United U21 (green) and Stoke City U21 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United U21 | LLWLW | 2.00 | 2.20 | 70% | 70% |
| Stoke City U21 | LLLLD | 1.30 | 2.80 | 50% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 14 Aug 2026 · Stoke City U21 0–0 Leeds United U21
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.35 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.41 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.80 |
| Leeds United U21 Win | 47% | 2.00 |
| 2nd Half Higher Goals | 46% | 2.03 |
| Leeds United U21 HT & FT | 29% | 3.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.