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III Liga - Group 1 · Poland
Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lechia T. Mazowiecki host Polonia Lidzbark Warm. in the III Liga - Group 1 (Poland) on 3 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1–2 Polonia Lidzbark Warm..
Going into the match, Lechia T. Mazowiecki had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 21. Polonia Lidzbark Warm. had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 21 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of Lechia T. Mazowiecki's last 10 and 9 of Polonia Lidzbark Warm.'s last 10; 8 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lechia T. Mazowiecki averaged 1.82 goals scored and 1.91 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Polonia Lidzbark Warm. averaged 1.50 scored and 2.50 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.67 goals from Lechia T. Mazowiecki and 1.83 from Polonia Lidzbark Warm.. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 41%, against 54%, 22% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lechia T. Mazowiecki (green) and Polonia Lidzbark Warm. (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lechia T. Mazowiecki | WLLLD | 2.00 | 2.10 | 90% | 80% |
| Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | DLLWD | 1.40 | 2.10 | 90% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 57% | 1.55 |
| Lechia T. Mazowiecki Win | 54% | 1.67 |
| Lechia T. Mazowiecki HT & FT | 36% | 2.60 |
| 2-1 | 10% | 9.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.