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Serie C - Girone A · Italy
Lecco vs Union Brescia prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lecco host Union Brescia in the Serie C - Girone A (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Lecco 2–2 Union Brescia.
Going into the match, Lecco had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 12. Union Brescia had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Lecco's last 10 and 5 of Union Brescia's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lecco averaged 0.89 goals scored and 0.78 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Union Brescia averaged 1.10 scored and 0.80 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.03 goals from Lecco and 1.34 from Union Brescia. From that it rates a home win at 28%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 43%, against 22%, 28% and 50% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lecco (green) and Union Brescia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecco | LDWWL | 0.60 | 1.20 | 20% | 40% |
| Union Brescia | DWDDW | 1.80 | 0.90 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.67 |
| Union Brescia Win | 50% | 1.80 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.