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Serie A · Italy
Lecce vs Bologna prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lecce host Bologna in the Serie A (Italy) on 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Lecce 1–2 Bologna.
Going into the match, Lecce had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 17. Bologna had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Lecce's last 10 and 5 of Bologna's last 10; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lecce averaged 1.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Bologna averaged 0.57 scored and 1.57 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.30 goals from Lecce and 1.10 from Bologna. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 30%, against 22%, 29% and 50% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lecce (green) and Bologna (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 12 Apr 2026 · Bologna 2–0 Lecce
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 50% | 1.80 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Bologna Win | 49% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.