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Liga 3 · Portugal
Leça vs AD Marco 09 prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Leça host AD Marco 09 in the Liga 3 (Portugal) on 10 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — AD Marco 09 to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 59% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Leça 2–0 AD Marco 09.
Going into the match, Leça had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 13. AD Marco 09 had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Leça's last 10 and 4 of AD Marco 09's last 10; 4 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Leça averaged 1.38 goals scored and 0.88 conceded across 8 matches; away from home AD Marco 09 averaged 0.71 scored and 1.00 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.32 goals from Leça and 0.73 from AD Marco 09. From that it rates a home win at 49%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 20%, against 42%, 28% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 51%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Leça (green) and AD Marco 09 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leça | WWLWL | 1.10 | 1.30 | 40% | 40% |
| AD Marco 09 | WWDWW | 1.10 | 0.80 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.34 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.65 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.79 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.