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Ligue 3 · France
Le Puy Foot vs Thionville Lusitanos prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Le Puy Foot host Thionville Lusitanos in the Ligue 3 (France) on 3 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Le Puy Foot 1–0 Thionville Lusitanos.
Going into the match, Le Puy Foot had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 15. Thionville Lusitanos had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Le Puy Foot's last 10 and 6 of Thionville Lusitanos's last 10; 4 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Le Puy Foot averaged 1.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Thionville Lusitanos averaged 2.13 scored and 0.75 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.70 goals from Le Puy Foot and 1.44 from Thionville Lusitanos. From that it rates a home win at 43%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 32%, against 48%, 26% and 27% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 83%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Le Puy Foot (green) and Thionville Lusitanos (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Puy Foot | LWLDL | 1.30 | 1.50 | 60% | 40% |
| Thionville Lusitanos | LDLDD | 2.10 | 1.50 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.80 |
| Le Puy Foot Win | 48% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.