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Ligue 1 · France
Le Mans vs Toulouse prediction and preview
16 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Le Mans host Toulouse in the Ligue 1 (France) on 16 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Le Mans 0–3 Toulouse.
Going into the match, Le Mans had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 16. Toulouse had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Le Mans's last 10 and 8 of Toulouse's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Le Mans averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Toulouse averaged 1.83 scored and 2.33 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.17 goals from Le Mans and 1.70 from Toulouse. From that it rates a home win at 25%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 49%, against 33%, 27% and 40% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Le Mans (green) and Toulouse (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.