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Liga Pro Serie B · Ecuador
LDU Portoviejo vs El Nacional prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
LDU Portoviejo host El Nacional in the Liga Pro Serie B (Ecuador) on 3 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is LDU Portoviejo Win — LDU Portoviejo to win. It was published at odds of 1.45, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: LDU Portoviejo 3–2 El Nacional.
Going into the match, LDU Portoviejo had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 5. El Nacional had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 1 of LDU Portoviejo's last 10 and 2 of El Nacional's last 10; 1 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home LDU Portoviejo averaged 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded across 15 matches; away from home El Nacional averaged 1.08 scored and 1.92 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.55 goals from LDU Portoviejo and 0.72 from El Nacional. From that it rates a home win at 56%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 16%, against 62%, 24% and 14% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LDU Portoviejo | DDLWW | 0.70 | 0.50 | 10% | 10% |
| El Nacional | LLWLL | 0.80 | 1.20 | 20% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 5 Sep 2026 · El Nacional 0–2 LDU Portoviejo
- 31 May 2026 · El Nacional 0–1 LDU Portoviejo
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.37 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 64% | 1.46 |
| LDU Portoviejo Win | 62% | 1.45 |
| BTTS No | 57% | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
| LDU Portoviejo HT & FT | 40% | 2.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.