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Serie A · Italy
Lazio vs Monza prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lazio host Monza in the Serie A (Italy) on 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Lazio Win — Lazio to win. It was published at odds of 1.60, which the bookmaker market rated at about 58% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Lazio 3–1 Monza.
Going into the match, Lazio had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 9. Monza had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Lazio's last 10 and 8 of Monza's last 10; 5 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lazio averaged 2.42 goals scored and 1.58 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Monza averaged 1.80 scored and 1.50 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.59 goals from Lazio and 1.34 from Monza. From that it rates a home win at 64%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 17%, against 59%, 24% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lazio (green) and Monza (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Lazio Win | 58% | 1.60 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.91 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.