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Latvia vs Montenegro prediction and preview
2 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Latvia host Montenegro in the UEFA Nations League (International) on 2 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Latvia 1–2 Montenegro.
Going into the match, Latvia had won 0, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 4 matches, scoring 1 and conceding 4. Montenegro had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 4, with 8 scored and 5 conceded.
Both teams scored in 1 of Latvia's last 4 and 3 of Montenegro's last 4; 0 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Latvia averaged 0.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 2 matches; away from home Montenegro averaged 2.00 scored and 1.33 conceded across 3.
The 1X2 prices imply about 20% for Latvia, 27% for the draw and 54% for Montenegro once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Latvia (green) and Montenegro (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latvia | DLLD | 0.25 | 1.00 | 25% | 0% |
| Montenegro | WWDW | 2.00 | 1.25 | 75% | 75% |
Averages over each side's last 4 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.67 |
| Montenegro Win | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42% | 2.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.