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Serie C - Girone B · Italy
Latina vs Ostia Mare prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Latina host Ostia Mare in the Serie C - Girone B (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Latina 1–1 Ostia Mare.
Going into the match, Latina had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 12. Ostia Mare had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Latina's last 10 and 5 of Ostia Mare's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Latina averaged 1.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Ostia Mare averaged 1.33 scored and 1.89 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.42 goals from Latina and 0.67 from Ostia Mare. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 16%, against 51%, 27% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Latina (green) and Ostia Mare (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latina | LDLWW | 1.70 | 1.20 | 60% | 40% |
| Ostia Mare | DWLLW | 0.90 | 1.60 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 16 Aug 2026 · Latina 1–1 Ostia Mare
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 52% | 1.82 |
| Latina Win | 51% | 1.80 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.