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Segunda División · Spain
Las Palmas vs Valladolid prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Las Palmas host Valladolid in the Segunda División (Spain) on 4 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Las Palmas 2–2 Valladolid.
Going into the match, Las Palmas had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 15. Valladolid had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Las Palmas's last 10 and 4 of Valladolid's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Las Palmas averaged 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Valladolid averaged 1.00 scored and 1.45 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.50 goals from Las Palmas and 1.57 from Valladolid. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 38%, against 43%, 30% and 27% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 82%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Las Palmas (green) and Valladolid (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas | LLWDL | 1.60 | 1.50 | 60% | 60% |
| Valladolid | WDLWD | 1.30 | 1.20 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 3 May 2026 · Las Palmas 2–1 Valladolid
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 74% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.80 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.08 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.