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Liga Profesional Argentina · Argentina
Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lanus host Velez Sarsfield in the Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina) on 12 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Lanus to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 74% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Lanus 2–0 Velez Sarsfield.
Going into the match, Lanus had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 9. Velez Sarsfield had won 3, drawn 7 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Lanus's last 10 and 7 of Velez Sarsfield's last 10; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lanus averaged 0.92 goals scored and 0.46 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Velez Sarsfield averaged 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.04 goals from Lanus and 0.99 from Velez Sarsfield. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 32%, against 41%, 33% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lanus (green) and Velez Sarsfield (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lanus | DWWWL | 1.20 | 0.90 | 40% | 50% |
| Velez Sarsfield | DWDWD | 1.30 | 1.00 | 70% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 1X | 74% | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Lanus Win | 42% | 2.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.