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Non League Premier - Northern · England
Lancaster City vs Ilkeston Town prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lancaster City host Ilkeston Town in the Non League Premier - Northern (England) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.63, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Lancaster City 2–1 Ilkeston Town.
Going into the match, Lancaster City had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 16. Ilkeston Town had won 0, drawn 1 and lost 9 of their last 10, with 5 scored and 27 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Lancaster City's last 10 and 5 of Ilkeston Town's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lancaster City averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Ilkeston Town averaged 0.75 scored and 2.50 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.85 goals from Lancaster City and 1.00 from Ilkeston Town. From that it rates a home win at 56%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 19%, against 44%, 26% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 54%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lancaster City (green) and Ilkeston Town (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lancaster City | WLLLW | 1.10 | 1.60 | 50% | 50% |
| Ilkeston Town | LLLLL | 0.50 | 2.70 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 69% | 1.31 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.43 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.63 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
| Lancaster City Win | 44% | 2.05 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.