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Ligue 3 · France
La Roche VF vs Aubagne prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
La Roche VF host Aubagne in the Ligue 3 (France) on 3 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: La Roche VF 3–1 Aubagne.
Going into the match, La Roche VF had won 6, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 10. Aubagne had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of La Roche VF's last 10 and 4 of Aubagne's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home La Roche VF averaged 2.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Aubagne averaged 1.00 scored and 1.38 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.74 goals from La Roche VF and 0.63 from Aubagne. From that it rates a home win at 63%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 12%, against 54%, 25% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 79%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between La Roche VF (green) and Aubagne (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Roche VF | WWDDW | 1.60 | 1.00 | 70% | 40% |
| Aubagne | WLLDW | 0.80 | 1.30 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| La Roche VF Win | 54% | 1.65 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.