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Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
La Nucía vs Lorca Deportiva prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
La Nucía host Lorca Deportiva in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: La Nucía 1–3 Lorca Deportiva.
Going into the match, La Nucía had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 6. Lorca Deportiva had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 5 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of La Nucía's last 10 and 3 of Lorca Deportiva's last 10; 2 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home La Nucía averaged 2.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Lorca Deportiva averaged 0.20 scored and 1.40 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.51 goals from La Nucía and 0.78 from Lorca Deportiva. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 18%, against 49%, 28% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between La Nucía (green) and Lorca Deportiva (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Nucía | LWWWW | 1.30 | 0.60 | 30% | 20% |
| Lorca Deportiva | LWDLD | 0.50 | 1.10 | 30% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 61% | 1.52 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.65 |
| La Nucía Win | 48% | 1.83 |
| La Nucía HT & FT | 31% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.25 |
| 1-0 | 16% | 6.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.