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Segunda División · Uruguay
La Luz vs Plaza Colonia prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
La Luz host Plaza Colonia in the Segunda División (Uruguay) on 11 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: La Luz 1–1 Plaza Colonia.
Going into the match, La Luz had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 16. Plaza Colonia had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of La Luz's last 10 and 5 of Plaza Colonia's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home La Luz averaged 1.18 goals scored and 1.55 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Plaza Colonia averaged 1.23 scored and 1.08 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.92 goals from La Luz and 1.04 from Plaza Colonia. From that it rates a home win at 30%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 36%, against 34%, 30% and 36% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between La Luz (green) and Plaza Colonia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Luz | WWLWL | 1.00 | 1.60 | 50% | 50% |
| Plaza Colonia | LLWDD | 0.90 | 1.10 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 4 Jul 2026 · Plaza Colonia 1–0 La Luz
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 69% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 61% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.74 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 40% | 2.38 |
| Plaza Colonia Win | 35% | 2.45 |
| 0-1 | 13% | 7.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.