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Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
KV Mechelen host St. Truiden in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium) on 11 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: KV Mechelen 4–3 St. Truiden.
Going into the match, KV Mechelen had won 0, drawn 4 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 18. St. Truiden had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of KV Mechelen's last 10 and 4 of St. Truiden's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home KV Mechelen averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.92 conceded across 12 matches; away from home St. Truiden averaged 1.81 scored and 1.38 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.45 goals from KV Mechelen and 1.77 from St. Truiden. From that it rates a home win at 31%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 44%, against 31%, 27% and 43% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between KV Mechelen (green) and St. Truiden (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | LDLLD | 0.70 | 1.80 | 30% | 40% |
| St. Truiden | LLWLW | 1.50 | 1.90 | 40% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 24 May 2026 · St. Truiden 3–0 KV Mechelen
- 26 Apr 2026 · KV Mechelen 1–4 St. Truiden
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.