Kuressaare vs Paide prediction and preview

24 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Under 3.5 GoalsOdds 1.44Market probability 64%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Kuressaare host Paide in the Meistriliiga (Estonia) on 24 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, Kuressaare had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 15. Paide had won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 13 conceded.

Both teams scored in 4 of Kuressaare's last 10 and 6 of Paide's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Kuressaare averaged 1.63 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Paide averaged 1.53 scored and 1.53 conceded across 17.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.23 goals from Kuressaare and 1.08 from Paide. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 31%, against 23%, 24% and 52% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Kuressaare (green) and Paide (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form37% – 63%

Attack31% – 69%

Defence44% – 56%

Head-to-head15% – 85%

Goals25% – 75%

Overall strength30% – 69%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Kuressaare	LWWWD	1.30	1.50	40%	50%
Paide	WWLWW	1.50	1.30	60%	60%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

2 Aug 2026 · Paide 1–0 Kuressaare
31 May 2026 · Paide 1–1 Kuressaare

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Over 1.5 Goals	78%	1.20
BTTS 1st Half - No	77%	1.22
Double Chance 12	75%	1.22
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	72%	1.28
Under 3.5 Goals	64%	1.44
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	59%	1.57
BTTS Yes	58%	1.67
Over 2.5 Goals	57%	1.67

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.