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Premier League · Russia
Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Krylia Sovetov host Spartak Moscow in the Premier League (Russia) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.47, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Krylia Sovetov 1–1 Spartak Moscow.
Going into the match, Krylia Sovetov had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 14. Spartak Moscow had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Krylia Sovetov's last 10 and 7 of Spartak Moscow's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Krylia Sovetov averaged 1.58 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Spartak Moscow averaged 1.00 scored and 1.09 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.90 goals from Krylia Sovetov and 1.74 from Spartak Moscow. From that it rates a home win at 18%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 56%, against 20%, 23% and 57% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Krylia Sovetov (green) and Spartak Moscow (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krylia Sovetov | DWDDD | 1.40 | 1.40 | 60% | 60% |
| Spartak Moscow | WWLWD | 2.00 | 0.90 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 4 Jul 2026 · Spartak Moscow 3–2 Krylia Sovetov
- 1 May 2026 · Krylia Sovetov 2–1 Spartak Moscow
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 81% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.47 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.51 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 59% | 1.58 |
| Spartak Moscow Win | 57% | 1.69 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.68 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.