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Ettan - Södra · Sweden
Kristianstad vs AFC Malmo prediction and preview
2 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Kristianstad host AFC Malmo in the Ettan - Södra (Sweden) on 2 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Kristianstad 0–1 AFC Malmo.
Going into the match, Kristianstad had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 14. AFC Malmo had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Kristianstad's last 10 and 8 of AFC Malmo's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Kristianstad averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.31 conceded across 13 matches; away from home AFC Malmo averaged 1.92 scored and 1.46 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.43 goals from Kristianstad and 1.57 from AFC Malmo. From that it rates a home win at 34%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 40%, against 29%, 25% and 46% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Kristianstad (green) and AFC Malmo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristianstad | WWLDL | 1.50 | 1.40 | 60% | 60% |
| AFC Malmo | WWLDD | 1.60 | 1.90 | 80% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| AFC Malmo Win | 46% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.