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Premier League · Mongolia
Khovd Western vs Deren prediction and preview
1 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Khovd Western host Deren in the Premier League (Mongolia) on 1 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS No — at least one side to fail to score. It was published at odds of 1.75, which the bookmaker market rated at about 52% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Khovd Western 1–5 Deren.
Going into the match, Khovd Western had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 17. Deren had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 25 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Khovd Western's last 10 and 5 of Deren's last 10; 8 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Khovd Western averaged 2.00 goals scored and 2.14 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Deren averaged 3.11 scored and 1.11 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.85 goals from Khovd Western and 3.59 from Deren. From that it rates a home win at 5%, a draw at 9% and an away win at 86%, against 7%, 10% and 83% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 44%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Khovd Western (green) and Deren (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khovd Western | LWLWL | 1.80 | 1.70 | 60% | 80% |
| Deren | WWDWW | 2.50 | 1.00 | 50% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 3 May 2026 · Khovd Western 1–5 Deren
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Deren 1st Half Win | 68% | 1.33 |
| Deren HT & FT | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.75 |
| 0-3 | 12% | 8.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.