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Second League - Group 4 · Russia
Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Khimik Dzerzhinsk host Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod in the Second League - Group 4 (Russia) on 11 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.51, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Khimik Dzerzhinsk 5–0 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod.
Going into the match, Khimik Dzerzhinsk had won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 9. Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 23 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Khimik Dzerzhinsk's last 10 and 7 of Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Khimik Dzerzhinsk averaged 2.64 goals scored and 0.86 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod averaged 1.60 scored and 1.60 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 3.13 goals from Khimik Dzerzhinsk and 0.91 from Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod. From that it rates a home win at 80%, a draw at 13% and an away win at 7%, against 56%, 24% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Khimik Dzerzhinsk (green) and Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khimik Dzerzhinsk | WWLWW | 1.70 | 0.90 | 50% | 60% |
| Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod | LDLLW | 1.40 | 2.30 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 13 Sep 2026 · Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 0–1 Khimik Dzerzhinsk
- 5 Jul 2026 · Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 1–1 Khimik Dzerzhinsk
- 3 May 2026 · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2–0 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.21 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.24 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.51 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 59% | 1.56 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Khimik Dzerzhinsk Win | 56% | 1.65 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 41% | 2.27 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.