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J1 League · Japan
Kashima vs Gamba Osaka prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Kashima host Gamba Osaka in the J1 League (Japan) on 9 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Kashima 2–0 Gamba Osaka.
Going into the match, Kashima had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 26 and conceding 15. Gamba Osaka had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Kashima's last 10 and 4 of Gamba Osaka's last 10; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Kashima averaged 2.58 goals scored and 0.58 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Gamba Osaka averaged 1.81 scored and 1.31 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.92 goals from Kashima and 1.57 from Gamba Osaka. From that it rates a home win at 45%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 31%, against 52%, 25% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 54%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Kashima (green) and Gamba Osaka (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima | WDWLL | 2.60 | 1.50 | 70% | 80% |
| Gamba Osaka | DWLWL | 1.70 | 1.40 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 77% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.