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Ettan - Norra · Sweden
Karlberg vs Vasalund prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Karlberg host Vasalund in the Ettan - Norra (Sweden) on 10 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Karlberg 3–3 Vasalund.
Going into the match, Karlberg had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 16. Vasalund had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 22 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Karlberg's last 10 and 8 of Vasalund's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Karlberg averaged 1.31 goals scored and 1.46 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Vasalund averaged 1.33 scored and 1.92 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.79 goals from Karlberg and 1.42 from Vasalund. From that it rates a home win at 45%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 30%, against 36%, 25% and 39% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Karlberg (green) and Vasalund (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 18 Jun 2026 · Vasalund 0–4 Karlberg
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 79% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.