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J3 League · Japan
Kagoshima United vs Fukushima United prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Kagoshima United host Fukushima United in the J3 League (Japan) on 4 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Kagoshima United Win — Kagoshima United to win. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Kagoshima United 3–2 Fukushima United.
Going into the match, Kagoshima United had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 10. Fukushima United had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 23 scored and 25 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Kagoshima United's last 10 and 7 of Fukushima United's last 10; 7 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Kagoshima United averaged 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Fukushima United averaged 1.78 scored and 1.89 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 3.02 goals from Kagoshima United and 1.37 from Fukushima United. From that it rates a home win at 70%, a draw at 16% and an away win at 14%, against 64%, 21% and 15% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Kagoshima United (green) and Fukushima United (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kagoshima United | DWWWL | 2.10 | 1.00 | 70% | 70% |
| Fukushima United | LWLLW | 2.30 | 2.50 | 70% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 76% | 1.20 |
| Kagoshima United Win | 64% | 1.40 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.66 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.66 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Kagoshima United HT & FT | 46% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 38% | 2.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.