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Primera División · Uruguay
Juventud vs Racing Montevideo prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Juventud host Racing Montevideo in the Primera División (Uruguay) on 11 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Juventud 2–0 Racing Montevideo.
Going into the match, Juventud had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 7. Racing Montevideo had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Juventud's last 10 and 4 of Racing Montevideo's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Juventud averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Racing Montevideo averaged 0.69 scored and 1.08 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.23 goals from Juventud and 0.69 from Racing Montevideo. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 20%, against 37%, 29% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Juventud (green) and Racing Montevideo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventud | WDDWW | 1.30 | 0.70 | 30% | 40% |
| Racing Montevideo | LLDLW | 0.90 | 1.40 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 17 Sep 2026 · Juventud 3–0 Racing Montevideo
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.08 |
| Juventud Win | 36% | 2.45 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.