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Esiliiga B · Estonia
Johvi Phoenix vs Narva U21 prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Johvi Phoenix host Narva U21 in the Esiliiga B (Estonia) on 11 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Narva U21 to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Johvi Phoenix 0–1 Narva U21.
Going into the match, Johvi Phoenix had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 21. Narva U21 had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Johvi Phoenix's last 10 and 4 of Narva U21's last 10; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Johvi Phoenix averaged 3.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Narva U21 averaged 1.62 scored and 1.38 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.14 goals from Johvi Phoenix and 1.58 from Narva U21. From that it rates a home win at 26%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 46%, against 36%, 21% and 43% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Johvi Phoenix (green) and Narva U21 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johvi Phoenix | WWWLW | 2.20 | 2.10 | 70% | 80% |
| Narva U21 | WWWWW | 1.80 | 0.70 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 15 Aug 2026 · Narva U21 1–0 Johvi Phoenix
- 28 May 2026 · Narva U21 1–1 Johvi Phoenix
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
| Narva U21 Win | 43% | 2.10 |
| Narva U21 HT & FT | 29% | 3.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.