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1. Liga · Latvia
JFK Ventspils vs Leevon / PPK prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
JFK Ventspils host Leevon / PPK in the 1. Liga (Latvia) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: JFK Ventspils 0–4 Leevon / PPK.
Going into the match, JFK Ventspils had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 21. Leevon / PPK had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 25 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of JFK Ventspils's last 10 and 8 of Leevon / PPK's last 10; 5 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home JFK Ventspils averaged 0.56 goals scored and 1.56 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Leevon / PPK averaged 1.90 scored and 1.20 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.86 goals from JFK Ventspils and 2.07 from Leevon / PPK. From that it rates a home win at 14%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 65%, against 18%, 20% and 62% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between JFK Ventspils (green) and Leevon / PPK (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JFK Ventspils | LWLLD | 0.90 | 2.10 | 50% | 50% |
| Leevon / PPK | WDWWW | 2.50 | 1.30 | 80% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 20 Jun 2026 · JFK Ventspils 1–3 Leevon / PPK
- 23 May 2026 · Leevon / PPK 2–1 JFK Ventspils
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Leevon / PPK Win | 62% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.55 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.70 |
| Leevon / PPK HT & FT | 46% | 2.00 |
| 0-3 | 10% | 9.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.