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J1 League · Japan
JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
JEF United Chiba host V-varen Nagasaki in the J1 League (Japan) on 11 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.70, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: JEF United Chiba 1–1 V-varen Nagasaki.
Going into the match, JEF United Chiba had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 16. V-varen Nagasaki had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of JEF United Chiba's last 10 and 6 of V-varen Nagasaki's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home JEF United Chiba averaged 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded across 10 matches; away from home V-varen Nagasaki averaged 0.93 scored and 1.79 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.20 goals from JEF United Chiba and 1.45 from V-varen Nagasaki. From that it rates a home win at 30%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 42%, against 35%, 28% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 55%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between JEF United Chiba (green) and V-varen Nagasaki (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JEF United Chiba | LLLDW | 1.10 | 1.60 | 50% | 40% |
| V-varen Nagasaki | DLDWW | 1.30 | 1.80 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.