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Second NL · Croatia
Jarun vs Varteks Varaždin prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Jarun host Varteks Varaždin in the Second NL (Croatia) on 10 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Jarun Win — Jarun to win. It was published at odds of 1.48, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Jarun 1–0 Varteks Varaždin.
Going into the match, Jarun had won 2, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 17. Varteks Varaždin had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Jarun's last 10 and 6 of Varteks Varaždin's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Jarun averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Varteks Varaždin averaged 1.22 scored and 1.67 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.75 goals from Jarun and 1.07 from Varteks Varaždin. From that it rates a home win at 52%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 22%, against 61%, 22% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 52%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Jarun (green) and Varteks Varaždin (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarun | WDDWD | 1.80 | 1.70 | 80% | 60% |
| Varteks Varaždin | DDLWL | 0.90 | 2.00 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 71% | 1.27 |
| Jarun Win | 62% | 1.48 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.49 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.68 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Jarun HT & FT | 42% | 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.