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Primera A · Colombia
Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 21:05 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Jaguares host Deportes Tolima in the Primera A (Colombia) on 11 Oct 2026, 21:05 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Jaguares 3–2 Deportes Tolima.
Going into the match, Jaguares had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 18. Deportes Tolima had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Jaguares's last 10 and 5 of Deportes Tolima's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Jaguares averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Deportes Tolima averaged 0.80 scored and 1.53 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.23 goals from Jaguares and 1.35 from Deportes Tolima. From that it rates a home win at 33%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 38%, against 20%, 27% and 54% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Jaguares (green) and Deportes Tolima (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguares | LLLDD | 1.10 | 1.80 | 60% | 60% |
| Deportes Tolima | DDDDL | 0.80 | 1.00 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Deportes Tolima Win | 53% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.