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Jagiellonia vs Polonia Warszawa prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Jagiellonia host Polonia Warszawa in the Friendlies Clubs (International) on 3 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.60, which the bookmaker market rated at about 59% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Jagiellonia 1–2 Polonia Warszawa.
Going into the match, Jagiellonia had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 14. Polonia Warszawa had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Jagiellonia's last 10 and 6 of Polonia Warszawa's last 10; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Jagiellonia averaged 1.93 goals scored and 0.86 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Polonia Warszawa averaged 1.38 scored and 1.46 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.10 goals from Jagiellonia and 1.14 from Polonia Warszawa. From that it rates a home win at 58%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 19%, against 54%, 22% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Jagiellonia (green) and Polonia Warszawa (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia | WLLLW | 2.20 | 1.40 | 70% | 80% |
| Polonia Warszawa | WDLWL | 1.60 | 1.20 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 77% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 76% | 1.21 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Jagiellonia Win | 54% | 1.65 |
| Jagiellonia HT & FT | 37% | 2.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.