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Ekstraklasa · Poland
Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Jagiellonia host Gornik Zabrze in the Ekstraklasa (Poland) on 10 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Jagiellonia 1–3 Gornik Zabrze.
Going into the match, Jagiellonia had won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 15. Gornik Zabrze had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Jagiellonia's last 10 and 6 of Gornik Zabrze's last 10; 9 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Jagiellonia averaged 1.87 goals scored and 0.93 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Gornik Zabrze averaged 1.11 scored and 0.89 conceded across 18.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.35 goals from Jagiellonia and 1.17 from Gornik Zabrze. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 31%, against 38%, 27% and 35% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Jagiellonia (green) and Gornik Zabrze (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia | LWLLL | 2.20 | 1.50 | 70% | 90% |
| Gornik Zabrze | LDWWW | 1.40 | 1.50 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 24 Apr 2026 · Jagiellonia 1–2 Gornik Zabrze
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.