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Italy vs Türkiye prediction and preview
5 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Italy host Türkiye in the UEFA Nations League (International) on 5 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Italy Win — Italy to win. It was published at odds of 1.45, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Italy 3–1 Türkiye.
Going into the match, Italy had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Türkiye had won 3, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 8, with 10 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Italy's last 5 and 3 of Türkiye's last 8; 1 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Italy averaged 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 1 matches; away from home Türkiye averaged 0.67 scored and 2.00 conceded across 3.
The 1X2 prices imply about 65% for Italy, 18% for the draw and 16% for Türkiye once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Italy (green) and Türkiye (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 8 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 28 Sep 2026 · Türkiye 1–4 Italy
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Italy Win | 65% | 1.45 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.48 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Italy HT & FT | 47% | 2.05 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.