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1. Lig · Turkey
İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
İstanbulspor host Esenler Erokspor in the 1. Lig (Turkey) on 10 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: İstanbulspor 0–1 Esenler Erokspor.
Going into the match, İstanbulspor had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 22. Esenler Erokspor had won 0, drawn 6 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 5 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of İstanbulspor's last 10 and 4 of Esenler Erokspor's last 10; 6 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home İstanbulspor averaged 2.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Esenler Erokspor averaged 0.83 scored and 0.83 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.06 goals from İstanbulspor and 1.35 from Esenler Erokspor. From that it rates a home win at 28%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 42%, against 26%, 26% and 47% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 78%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between İstanbulspor (green) and Esenler Erokspor (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| İstanbulspor | WLLLD | 0.70 | 2.20 | 40% | 60% |
| Esenler Erokspor | LDLDL | 0.50 | 1.30 | 40% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance X2 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.