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Liga Alef · Israel
Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit prediction and preview
8 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ironi Baka El Garbiya host Hapoel Nazareth Illit in the Liga Alef (Israel) on 8 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 74% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ironi Baka El Garbiya 1–2 Hapoel Nazareth Illit.
Going into the match, Ironi Baka El Garbiya had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Hapoel Nazareth Illit had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Ironi Baka El Garbiya's last 5 and 6 of Hapoel Nazareth Illit's last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ironi Baka El Garbiya averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 2 matches; away from home Hapoel Nazareth Illit averaged 1.57 scored and 2.00 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.66 goals from Ironi Baka El Garbiya and 1.54 from Hapoel Nazareth Illit. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 35%, against 31%, 27% and 42% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ironi Baka El Garbiya (green) and Hapoel Nazareth Illit (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ironi Baka El Garbiya | LWDLD | 1.40 | 1.60 | 60% | 60% |
| Hapoel Nazareth Illit | LWWDD | 1.40 | 1.60 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.35 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
| Hapoel Nazareth Illit Win | 42% | 2.15 |
| Hapoel Nazareth Illit HT & FT | 27% | 3.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.