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USL Championship · USA
Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Indy Eleven host Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship (USA) on 10 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 74% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Indy Eleven 1–3 Tampa Bay Rowdies.
Going into the match, Indy Eleven had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 12. Tampa Bay Rowdies had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Indy Eleven's last 10 and 2 of Tampa Bay Rowdies's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Indy Eleven averaged 1.64 goals scored and 0.93 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Tampa Bay Rowdies averaged 1.50 scored and 0.71 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.79 goals from Indy Eleven and 1.51 from Tampa Bay Rowdies. From that it rates a home win at 19%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 53%, against 27%, 24% and 49% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Indy Eleven (green) and Tampa Bay Rowdies (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indy Eleven | DLLLW | 1.30 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | LDWLW | 1.30 | 0.60 | 20% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 3 May 2026 · Tampa Bay Rowdies 1–0 Indy Eleven
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.80 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.