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FIFA Asean Cup · International
Indonesia vs Thailand prediction and preview
5 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Indonesia host Thailand in the FIFA Asean Cup (International) on 5 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Indonesia to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 76% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Indonesia 1–1 Thailand.
Going into the match, Indonesia had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 9 matches, scoring 24 and conceding 7. Thailand had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Indonesia's last 9 and 4 of Thailand's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Indonesia averaged 3.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Thailand averaged 2.50 scored and 0.50 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.48 goals from Indonesia and 0.98 from Thailand. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 24%, against 48%, 28% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Indonesia (green) and Thailand (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.37 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.42 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
| Indonesia Win | 48% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.