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Liga Profesional Argentina · Argentina
Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba prediction and preview
2 Oct 2026, 22:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Independiente host Instituto Cordoba in the Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina) on 2 Oct 2026, 22:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.48, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Independiente 1–4 Instituto Cordoba.
Going into the match, Independiente had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 12. Instituto Cordoba had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Independiente's last 10 and 5 of Instituto Cordoba's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Independiente averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Instituto Cordoba averaged 1.00 scored and 0.67 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.84 goals from Independiente and 1.41 from Instituto Cordoba. From that it rates a home win at 21%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 49%, against 40%, 32% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Independiente (green) and Instituto Cordoba (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente | WDWLD | 0.80 | 1.20 | 30% | 40% |
| Instituto Cordoba | WWLWD | 1.40 | 0.70 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 1X | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.48 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 55% | 1.70 |
| Independiente Win | 40% | 2.38 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 38% | 2.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.